Tested before we published
Nothing on this site went live until it beat the obvious guess.
- The obvious guess is that tomorrow will look like today. It is hard to beat, because most days do. We hold every forecast to it.
- The park forecast ran for 28 nights before it went live on October 10, 2026. On a typical day it missed the park-wide wait by 2.7 minutes. The obvious guess missed by 5.6. About half.
- The ride forecast ran its own 28 nights and went live on October 12, 2026. It missed by 4.7 minutes against 8.3 for the obvious guess.
- The crowd calendar has been live since September 13, 2026, with a fresh call for the next ten days every night. The cards above are the record since the forecasts went live, recomputed from the grades, not copied from a report.
What the number means
The crowd level on every calendar day and Today page.
- A level runs 1 to 10. A 1 is one of the quietest days that park has had in the past year, a 10 one of the busiest.
- Each park is scored against itself only. An EPCOT 8 and an Animal Kingdom 8 are different days, because Animal Kingdom generally runs lighter.
- The resort level is the average of the four park levels, rounded.
- A call is built from that park's own past year of days. The calls for the next ten days get a small nudge from the 10-day weather forecast. Weather never sets a level.
- No ticket price or Lightning Lane price goes into any forecast.
- On the morning of, the park forecast becomes the day's call. The earlier calls for that day stay on the record and are graded too.
How we check ourselves
What a posted wait is and why we grade against it.
- A posted wait is the number on the sign at the ride entrance, as Disney publishes it. It is Disney's estimate, not the time anyone actually stood in line. It is also the only public record, so it is what we grade against.
- A park's wait for the day is the average of its posted waits across the hours it was open.
- Every call is written down before the day. When the day is over it is graded and the grade is kept. Nothing is dropped, and the latest calendar misses are listed below.
- Inside the band means the day's wait landed inside the range we gave. A level miss means the day was more than one level off on the park's own scale.
The crowd calendar record, since Sep 13
Every call for every past day at all four parks, grouped by how far ahead it was made.
| Made this far ahead | Calls | Within 1 level | Exact | Avg error (min) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Same day or 1 day | 260 | 47% | 20% | 4.0 |
| 2 to 7 days | 1080 | 39% | 15% | 4.3 |
| 8 to 30 days | 928 | 50% | 22% | 4.1 |
| 31+ days | 208 | 61% | 27% | 3.6 |
| All calls | 2,476 | 46% | 19% | 4.1 |
Recent misses
| Date | Park | Lead | Said level | Said | Was | Off by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 | Magic Kingdom | 6d | 3 | 19 min | 14 min | 5.2 min |
| Oct 27 | Hollywood Studios | 2d | 3 | 33 min | 24 min | 9.5 min |
| Oct 26 | Magic Kingdom | 0d | 4 | 20 min | 22 min | 2.1 min |
| Oct 26 | EPCOT | 0d | 3 | 26 min | 22 min | 4.3 min |
| Oct 26 | Hollywood Studios | 0d | 3 | 33 min | 28 min | 4.4 min |
| Oct 26 | Animal Kingdom | 2d | 4 | 23 min | 20 min | 2.9 min |
| Oct 25 | Magic Kingdom | 3d | 3 | 19 min | 15 min | 3.7 min |
| Oct 25 | EPCOT | 1d | 4 | 28 min | 25 min | 3.1 min |
A miss is more than one level off on the park's own scale; minutes are Disney's posted waits.
1,336 misses since Sep 13. The latest 8 park days are shown.
The morning park call, since Oct 10
Each park's morning call against the day's average posted wait, with the obvious guess beside it.
| Park | Days | Inside the band | Our miss (min) | Same as yesterday (min) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magic Kingdom | 18 | 89% | 2.5 | 6.0 |
| EPCOT | 18 | 89% | 2.7 | 2.6 |
| Hollywood Studios | 18 | 100% | 4.0 | 4.7 |
| Animal Kingdom | 18 | 67% | 4.9 | 6.2 |
| All parks | 18 | 86% | 3.5 | 4.9 |
The ride forecasts, since Oct 12
The hour-by-hour forecast for every ride, graded against that day's posted waits.
| Park | Rides | Days | Typical miss (min) | Hours inside the band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magic Kingdom | 26 | 16 | 3.7 | 81% |
| EPCOT | 13 | 16 | 5.3 | 84% |
| Hollywood Studios | 9 | 16 | 7.2 | 85% |
| Animal Kingdom | 7 | 16 | 8.9 | 76% |
| All parks | 55 | 16 | 5.3 | 82% |
What we will not tell you
The lines every page on this site stays inside.
- We will not tell you the best hour to ride. The best hour on a ride page is read from yesterday's posted waits. A model that beats it has not been proven, so none is claimed.
- We will not forecast a ride's wait more than two days out. Past two days we have not proven we know more than the calendar does.
- We will not call a wait less than 30 minutes ahead. That close, the number on the sign is the better guess, and the app already shows it.
- We will not tell you a level moved because of the weather. The weather forecast is a small nudge on the next ten days and nothing more.
Models in service: calendar prototype-2026-10-27@cdf2026-10-24, park gbm-q-2026-10-10, rides attr-2026-07-13. Posted waits are Disney's numbers. Nothing on this site publishes before it passes its gate.