Lightning BrainCrowds & forecasts

Magic Kingdom crowd calendar

Walk forward for the forecast, back for how every call turned out.

8/10Monday, October 5, 2026 ยท High: busy

Park-wide average posted wait about 25 min. Mostly Recent days have run lighter than usual and Rivers of America & Tom Sawyer Island closed; Walt Disney's Carousel of Progress closed; Walt Disney World Railroad closed. We said level 8, about 25 min. Disney's posted waits averaged 29 min. More than 1 level off.

Quietest day aheadThu, Oct 29level 1 of 10
Busiest day aheadTue, Nov 10level 9 of 10
Next 22 days4.2 average10 low days, 1 peak day
Track record48% within 1719 calls graded, 3.6 min average error

Calendar

Big number: crowd level, 1 to 10. Small number: the date. Tap a day for its call.

Low 1 to 2Moderate- 3 to 4Moderate+ 5 to 6High 7 to 8Peak 9 to 10

November 2026

SMTWTFS12 24 35 45 56 67 77 82 94 109 118 122 132 147 151 168 171 187 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

Further ahead

December 2026 through October 2027.

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Monday, October 5, 2026

Level 8 of 10, High: busy.

Park-wide average posted wait about 25 min.

Mostly Recent days have run lighter than usual and Rivers of America & Tom Sawyer Island closed; Walt Disney's Carousel of Progress closed; Walt Disney World Railroad closed.

We said level 8, about 25 min. Disney's posted waits averaged 29 min. More than 1 level off.

The math

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Premium shows the math: each driver in minutes, and how this call moved from months out to the day before.

The record so far

Every past day keeps every call we made for it. The table grades each call by how far ahead it was made.

Made this far aheadCallsWithin 1 levelExactAvg error (min)
Same day or 1 day8053%19%3.2
2 to 7 days33339%11%3.7
8 to 30 days25452%24%3.8
31+ days5271%23%2.6

Recent misses

DateLeadSaid levelSaidWasOff by
Oct 276d319 min14 min5.2 min
Oct 277d319 min14 min5.6 min
Oct 278d420 min14 min6.3 min
Oct 279d421 min14 min6.8 min
Oct 260d420 min22 min2.1 min
Oct 261d116 min22 min6.1 min
Oct 262d421 min22 min1.7 min
Oct 263d217 min22 min5.5 min

A miss is more than one level off on the park's own scale; minutes are Disney's posted waits.